| Desktop PC Platform: Fears and Predictions |  |
| Articles - Opinion & Editorials | ||
| Written by Olin Coles | ||
| Sunday, 08 August 2010 | ||
Desktop PC Platform: Fears and PredictionsBenchmark Reviews is a consumer technology website that tests gadgets of all types, but maintains a focus on desktop computer components. We're not alone in this effort, as we've kindly recognized several other websites who do a good job of accomplishing the same mission. To this end, we collectively follow certain market trends more than others. Over the past few years, I've personally watched certain technologies such as mobile devices grow ripe on the vine while others like cellular broadband have withered. Yet, regardless of focus, one particular concept has continually ruled the industry: more for less. To some degree this moniker shaped the birth of desktop PCs, but may also very well become the death of it. This isn't exactly a new concept, mind you, as it generally parallels Moore's Law. It's only when you target a specific market segment and consider the idea that one popular platform could completely replace another that this concept becomes more interesting. Forty years ago most people couldn't imagine an age where computers could be small enough for personal use. Yet in 1976, Apple and Commodore were doing exactly that with the first consumer PCs. The very next year computer games made their debut for this new PC platform, which subsequently spawned the Atari gaming console. Later on in 1983 the Graphical User Interface (GUI) would arrive on the scene. By some accounts, this was the beginning of the end. The PC was born from the idea that computer devices could be compact enough to perform work-related tasks in an office or home environment. Sure, gaming was a factor, but arcade consoles and home entertainment systems satisfied this market. There would be times when gaming consoles offered the best experience, and PCs grew to deliver multimedia playback. As the years progressed both platforms evolved, and to a large extent each returned to offer similar functions. For the next decade, gaming consoles learned to deliver productivity tools as well as gaming entertainment and would soon be considered a PC of another flavor. Gaming was the first primary threat to the desktop PC platform, and as consoles evolved to offer better graphics for a reasonable cost this continued to remain a concern. The early 1990's were an interesting time for personal computers. Gaming consoles created "All your base are belong to us" and countless other popular memories, while dial-up Internet access and Id's Doom video game made desktop PCs a popular choice. Despite their best efforts, the notebook computer, or laptop PC as it was first known, garnered the most attention. Adored for their ability to deliver much of the same functionality as full size desktop PCs from inside a compact profile, laptops were the choice of business professionals everywhere. I personally experienced the dot-com gold rush (and dot-bomb era) working for web-based companies exclusively using notebook computers both in and out of the office. The miniature footprint and mobile computing capabilities soon formed the writing on the wall for desktop PCs. Enter the year 2010, a time where mobile devices such as the HTC EVO 4G Andriod SmartPhone can nearly replicate the functionality of a personal computer, yet consume much less power and occupy less real-estate. If ever there was a time when more for less was clearly visible within computer technology, that time would be now. Mobile devices cannot replace the processing power of a workstation computer, and most devices aren't capable of delivering the entertainment experience of desktop PCs, but they're hot on the heels of notebooks and netbook devices. NVIDIA's Tegra mobile GPU might have bridged that gap, as I had the honor of playing Quake from a SmartPhone back in 2008, but delays have kept this disruptive technology at bay. Had it been accepted into mainstream production on time, I can only imagine what the average cell phone would be capable of at this point. So as we move ahead towards the end of the year, and as we will soon be experiencing yet another display of modern innovation at the upcoming 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), I can only sit back and wonder what I'll be testing a few years from now. Some of the original players in the hardware review business undoubtedly know this fear, and have witnessed technology shrink from the jumbo full-size tower computers into palm-size versions holding the same potential. Though this article merely becomes the introduction for many subsequent discussions I'll share on the topic, the message is clear: desktop PCs have an expiration date, and that time may not be far off. Welcome to the new Opinion & Editorials section at Benchmark Reviews. Your input is welcome.
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Comments
A dual-core nettop sounds about optimum to me. One that doesn't use a fan. Fans suck in dust. Sometimes they squeak. I would rather have less power and a machine I could use an not mess with for years.
Yeah they want to convince us that we need more power FOREVER and to constantly upgrade to get it but that is nonsense. What we need is reasonably efficient software not bloatware. I was listening to users complain about useless variations in software in 2001. Would the world come to an end if millions of users just froze on Ubuntu 10.10 and refused to upgrade and just accepted bug fixes?
My Archos PMA400 works damn well at 150 MHz. I would prefer a form factor like the Dr. Eye from Inventec. But it doesn't have a 30 gig SSD. The iPad doean't have a USB port. So many things are screwed up for DUMB reasons.
30 or 40 years ago it was unthinkable that families would have 3 or 4 cars - why would you when one car was enough for a family. The same will happen with computers. We will each have our own netbook/PDA, and we`ll have a larger/luxury PC/Media Centre etc at home.
And havent PC shipments beeing gowing lately?
One major upcoming advancement that will change things is cloud computing. Cloud computing will use broadband access to coordinate data transfer between the server where it is processed and the desktop which will simply be a dumb terminal with very stripped down performance requirements.
According to Moore's law and Kurzweil's law of accelerated returns, by the time that cloud computing matures into the mainstream, the next big thing will be there to take over. Families won't need 3-4 "cars" and internet bandwidth will be the new gasoline.
PC shipments have stayed the same with some decrease. Due to constant product placement and advertising, Mac notebooks are on the rise.
As for PC shipments, while they did rise this past quarter over the previous, they've still been suffering a major decline for more than three years now. Notebook sales surpassed desktop sales in late 2008.
I dont think anyone believes desktops will completely dissapear, or that they will remain as strong as they are today.
I think we`ll see desktop lose 1/4 to 1/3 (20-30%) of it`s market share over the next 5 years. Cant see it losing anywhere near 40-50% though, that would be crazy.
But if the market size keeps growing, we may not actually see a volume reduction at all. Lets hope.
no laptop can work 100% @ 24*7*365.
no laptop has 8TB of storage..
no laptop, etc...
but the ipad will become the standard pc for all other people in the world.
the ipad will kill the atom mini laptops.
the atom mini laptops will go first, no doubt.
The PC market fractured a while ago into sub categories and will continue to fracture with the evolution of new devices and different form factors. And while the once all pervasive desktop is not the king of the categories it is not dead. Unit volumes will go up this year approx 3-4%.
It would be nice to have my full tower rig, an OC 3.8Ghz 920 with a pair of GTX 295s, two DVD light scribes, a multicard reader, etc all wrapped up in my cell phone. Then I could just plug in my three monitors using one cable in the back of my phone, and we'd be set. Well, hell yes! Who wouldn't want that?
But how far out are we from getting i980 power out of a package the size of a cell phone? I'd say 20 years until we hit a physical (physics) limit, if there is one, to how small things can actually be.
...now if they just get a folding oled (7" display which collapses to the size of a RaZR or RiZR, and you only use part of the display when the phone is in your pocket & you're checking the time or something else real quick...but if you sit down in a cafe & unfold the screen, it realizes you want to use the full display area), it'll truly replace the netbooks/UMPC's when its diplay is a more usable size (or some phones already have a 1080p DLP projector). ...and if they get voice-to-voice real-time translation (google's working on that for circa 2013, with voice-recognition integral, so 99% of your text is no longer inputted with the tiny #%#$% keyboard, unless you're in a "quiet area"), I'll be golden.
usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2012-05-23/HP-layoffs/55172146/1
Commodities sell on price, so people will buy the cheapest Win 7 box, and that ain't HP. Boutique vendors seems to be doing better, but as HP's disastrous acquisition and subsequent destruction of Voodoo PC showed, they have no idea how to compete in that market (and it's probably too small for them anyway).